Signal methodology
Scoring weights and Bayesian priors vary by market category. Here is the full breakdown.
← Back to MethodologyWeights reflect where genuine skill concentrates in each category. Politics scores Consistency highly because political edge is durable; Sports scores Edge highly because market inefficiency is event-specific.
| Category | Edge | Slugging | Capacity | Consistency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 30 | 20 | 15 | 35 |
| Elections | 40 | 30 | 20 | 10 |
| Iran | 45 | 35 | 10 | 10 |
| Geopolitics | 35 | 30 | 15 | 20 |
| Sports | 45 | 15 | 25 | 15 |
| Esports | 35 | 25 | 15 | 25 |
| Crypto | 45 | 25 | 20 | 10 |
| Tech | 35 | 30 | 15 | 20 |
| Finance | 45 | 15 | 30 | 10 |
| Economy | 35 | 30 | 20 | 15 |
| Weather | 25 | 20 | 35 | 20 |
| Culture | 35 | 30 | 15 | 20 |
| Mentions | 40 | 15 | 30 | 15 |
All values are percentage weights. Each row sums to 100.
The Bayesian prior represents the population of skilled (not lucky) wallets in each category. Weather's 75% skilled baseline is unusually high because public ECMWF forecast models already hit ~70% — wallets must clear that bar to be considered skilled.
| Category | Skilled WR | Breakeven | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 60% | 53% | Tight band; >65% over <40 N is variance |
| Elections | 57% | 52% | Even 538-tier hits ~57% on contested races |
| Iran | 60% | 54% | Tiny N — requires posterior CI to fully clear 54% |
| Geopolitics | 58% | 53% | Wider tail than Politics — genuine edge rare |
| Sports | 55% | 49% | After vig-equivalent |
| Esports | 58% | 50% | Public dumber, books softer than sports |
| Crypto | 60% | 52% | Reflexive markets — concentrated edge bursts |
| Tech | 64% | 52% | Soft-info edges available |
| Finance | 60% | 52% | Efficient vs CME FedWatch — alpha narrow |
| Economy | 57% | 52% | Fatter tails than Finance |
| Weather | 75% | 70% | Public ECMWF gets ~70% — this is the unusual one |
| Culture | 58% | 52% | Real narrative noise; insiders barely above chance |
| Mentions | 62% | 52% | Quant-tractable but no canonical public model |
Skilled WR is the prior mean for wallets that have genuine edge in this category. Breakeven is the vig-adjusted minimum win rate to generate positive EV. The posterior 90% credible interval must fully clear the breakeven rate before a wallet qualifies.
This platform is for educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Past signal accuracy does not guarantee future results. All prediction market participation carries risk.